Palo Alto CA Market Update, July 27th: One Year Later

 Sorry for the recent silence on my blog. Summer is busy! 

Lately I've been interested in tracking market changes by looking at my old market update posts and comparing them to current trends. Here's the latest in what I hope to be a semi-regular occurrence... the One Year Later market update. Let me know if these compare/contrast updates are as interesting for you as they are for me.

My Market Update for 7/26/10

Here's today's snapshot of the Palo Alto single family home market: 

121 Active listings

33  Pending sales

What does this mean? The inventory of active listings decreased by 1 and pending sales decreased by 3.  This is virtually unchanged from last week when there was a huge decrease in pending sales. The fact that pending has stayed stable is a good sign. The over 2 million market has 37  active listings and 7 pending sales which is pretty much the same as last week with only a decrease of 3 in active listings and the same number of pending . Under 2 million there are 84 active listings and 33 pending sales, which is slightly better than last weeks numbers. My guess is that we have hit the doldrums of summer and we will not see much change in August except maybe a little less inventory which is typical for August.

And here's where we are today:

100 Active listings

57 Pending sales

Over 2 Million:

36 Active listings

9 Pending Sales

Under 2 Million

64 Active Listings

48 Pending Sales

What does this mean?  Not much has changed since last July.  There were more listings last year, but the active to pending ratio was pretty much the same both above and below 2 million.  So there were more active listings and pending sales last year, but the percentage of listings selling is pretty much the same.  How does this jive with what the chatter in the news and real community saying we have hit bottom and prices are going up?

My take is that there is a lot of activity over a few houses.  If a home is priced low for the market and it is in a desirable location it is most likely to get multiple offers and be sold for over asking price.  But, a few homes selling for more than asking, and possibly more than market value, does not make for a fundamental change in market dynamics. 

Last year I predicted that the coming year would not bring much change in the market. Year over year I think I am correct.  Despite flurries of activity (particularly in the under million dollar market) overall things are similar.  Fewer homes, but fewer buyers.  Loans are still a challenge, jobs are still insecure, and the stock market is still volatile.

We still have a desirable market and buyers willing to pay a lot of money to live here, but homes are not flying off the shelf any faster now than they did last year if you consider active to pending listings a measure of how active or slow the market is.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E.  01191194

Photo courtesy of smartpassiveincome.com. 

Palo Alto CA Market Update, June 15th: With a Neighborhood Twist!

Here's the latest update on the single family home market in Palo Alto, with a neighborhood twist! 

Active Listings: 98

Pending Sales: 50

The market seems to be holding pretty steady, with a ratio of one pending sale for every 2 active listings. So this time, instead of breaking the numbers up by price range I did a neighborhood breakdown. 

Are some neighborhoods more popular than others? If so, which ones? 

So here's what I found when I crunched the numbers by neighborhood: 

Downtown:  5 Active  3 Pending

Professorville:  3 Active  2 Pending

Community Center:  3 Active  4 Pending

Crescent Park:  5 Active   3 Pending

Green Gables:  8 Active  9 Pending

Old Palo Alto:  11 Active   2 Pending

College Terrace:  Active 10  Pending 4

Ventura:  4 Active  2 Pending

Midtown:  9 Active  3 pending

South Palo Alto: 19 Active  13 Pending

Barron Park:  Active  9   Pending   1

Green Acres:  6 Active  2 Pending

Palo Alto Hills:  4 Active  1 Pending

So what does this mean?  Well, after a year and a half of looking at PA by price range it is very interesting for me to look at things from a different angle.  Intuitively it has felt to me like the Community Center has become the “it" place to be, and this week’s stats definitely support that.  It is one of only two neighborhood with more pending sales than active listings. The other is Green Gables.   

What I find most fascinating is the Barron Park stat. 9 active listings to 1 pending sale is the worst neighborhood in Palo Alto.  Why? I have some theories.  It was the most popular for a while and perhaps was more over inflated than others so needs a bigger adjustment.  Or is it the 900 pound gorilla in the room that no one wants to discuss:  suicide. Did the rash of Gunn suicides send buyers to the northern end of Palo Alto?  If you look at the active to pending ratios of all the neighborhoods they are uniformly better in north Palo Alto than south Palo Alto.  

Now, this is only my first look, and the numbers for each neighborhood are small, but it is definitely a trend I want to follow.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

marcy@marcymoyer.com

www.marcymoyer.com

D.R.E. 01191194

650-619-9285

The Facts About Palo Alto Short Sales and Foreclosures

There's a lot of chatter on real estate blogs about the steep increase in foreclosures and short sales in Palo Alto. Unfortunately many sites post stats from a company called Realty Trac which tracts everything from a Notice of Default through a listed bank owned property.  Many things can happen before a home with a Notice of Default actually gets to be sold by the bank, but unless you read the fine print carefully it is easy to confuse a house that is behind a few months in payments with an actual bank owned property on the market for sale.

Most bank owned homes as well as short sales (where the seller owes more than the home is worth and the lender/lenders have agreed to accept less than the amount of the mortgage to release the debt) are sold through the MLS.  So to see how many of these distressed sales have hit the market in the last year I went to the MLS and looked.  

Here is what I found for single family homes:

Bank owned properties sold in last year:              4

Current Pending sales of Bank owned:                 2

Short Sales sold in last year:                               3

Current Pending Short Sales                               1

Current Active Short Sales                                 1

For condo/townhomes the numbers are:

Bank owned sold:                                             2

Bank owned pending sales:                               1

Short Sales sold:                                              3

Short sales pending:                                         4

Short sales active:                                            2

As you can see this is not a huge number, especially since the total number of homes sold in Palo Alto in the last year is 369, making distressed sales account for less than 2%.  There have been 97 condo/townhomes sold in the same period making the distressed sales about 5% of that market.  These numbers are not enough to have any impact on the price of homes in Palo Alto at this point.  The percentage would have to increase several fold before Palo Alto prices are affected by distressed properties.  I am not saying that this is or is not going to happen, that is a discussion for a future post, just that it has not happened yet.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

D.R.E.  01191194

marcy@marcymoyer.com

www.marcymoyer.com

*Photo Credit: found this hilarious picture at the website for The Sacramento Bee. 

Palo Alto Market Update, May 25th: Single Family Homes

As of today this is the snapshot of the Palo Alto single family home market:

89 Active listings

62 Pending sales

Breakdown of Price Points:

Under 1 million: 7 Active Listings / 12 Pending Sales

1 to 2 Mil: 41 Active Listings/ 37 Pending Sales

2-3 Million 25 Active listings/ 9 Pending Sales

3+ mil: 16 Active Listings/ 4 Pending Sales

What does this mean? Active to pending ratio is stagnant in all categories from last week, with the exception of the 2-3 million price point. It was 18 to 8 and is now 25 to 9. If this is a trend we may have seen a peak in recovery, or it may just be a blip. At this price point the stock market is often involved in the down payment and with this month’s stock problems we may be seeing a slow down. My only predication is that this is the segment to watch to see if the crazy multiple offer market in PA is going to slow down or continue.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

DRE 01191194

Palo Alto Market Update, May 5th: Single Family Homes

As of today this is the snapshot of the Palo Alto single family home market:

69 Active Listings

65 Pending Sales

Price Point Break Down:

Under 1 Million

5 Active Listings

21 Pending Sales

1 mil to 1.5 mil

25 Active Listings

24 Pending Sales

1.5 to 2 mil

11 Active Listings

24 Pending Sales

2-3 mil

17 Active Listings

9 Pending Sales

3mil +

12 Active Listings

4 Pending Sales

This time last year:

148 Active listings

47 Pending sales

Things have really changed since last year. There is half the inventory as last year, which goes along with the recent California Association of Realtor Stats that report that in Ca. homes over 1 million last year had a 21 month supply of inventory and now there is a 10 month supply of inventory. So, at this moment in time the market is better, even in the over 3 million dollar price point when last year the ratio of active to pending was 40 to 1 over 2 million. 3 to 1 is much better, but I do not know if we have really hit bottom for this segment. My guess is no, but I will have more knowledge about that in the coming months.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

Palo Alto Market Update, April 19th: Single Family Homes

As of today this is the snapshot of the Palo Alto single family home market:

79 Active listings

51 Pending sales

Breakdown of Price Points:

Under 1 million: 6 Active Listings / 14 Pending Sales

1 to 1.5 Mil: 31 Active Listings/ 19 Pending Sales

1.5-2 mil: 14 Active Listings/ 8 Pending Sales

2-3 Million 12 Active listings/ 10 Pending Sales

3+ mil: 13 Active Listings/ 3 Pending Sales

What does mean? The market overall is pretty healthy. There is virtually no change since my last update on 4/11/10. Under 1 million is very competitive, 1-2 million is trending seller’s market, but most surprisingly, 2-3 million is pretty healthy again this week which I will now declare a trend. Over 3 million is still anemic and probably the best chance for a bargain. So it seems there are still a lot of people who want to move to Palo Alto, and there is competition for homes. With the increased optimism over the potential for more jobs in the Silicon Valley there is a good chance that this may make the real estate market more active. There are people who are thinking that the upper part of the market will start to recover soon. I have not seen it in the stats yet, but it is possible it could happen. I believe that if the upper end is ready to recover will we see an increase in pending sales first.

If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

DRE 01191194

Palo Alto Market Update, April 11th: Single Family Homes

Here is today's snapshot of the Palo Alto market for single family homes:

77 Active listings

46 Pending sales

Breakdown of Price Points:

Under 1 million: 9 Active Listings / 10 Pending Sales

1 to 1.5 Mil: 28 Active Listings/ 15 Pending Sales

1.5-2 mil: 16 Active Listings/ 8 Pending Sales

2-3 Million 13 Active listings/ 8 Pending Sales

3+ mil: 12 Active Listings/ 3 Pending Sales

What does mean? The market overall is pretty healthy. There is virtually no change since my last update on 3/3/10. Under 1 million is very competitive, 1-2 million is trending seller’s market, but most surprisingly, 2-3 million is pretty healthy again this week which I will now declare a trend. Over 3 million is still anemic and probably the best chance for a bargain. So it seems there are still a lot of people who want to move to Palo Alto, and there is completion for homes.

· If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

DRE 01191194

Palo Alto Market Update, March 19th: Single Family Homes

H Here's today's market update for single family homes--

86 Active listings

50 Pending sales

What does this mean? The inventory of active listings continues to decrease, and the pending sales continue to increase. I think that we are experiencing significant change in the under 2 million dollar market. We have seen a number of multiple offers in Palo Alto and I think by Sept we may start to see that there is an up tick in the prices in the lower than 2 million dollar market.

· If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

DRE 01191194

Palo Alto Market Update, Jan 7th: Single Family Homes

49 Active Listings

32 Pending Sales

As 2010 begins we have very little inventory, interest rates are not too bad, and housing prices are probably close to 20% lower than at this time last year. So what's the difference between now and other times when inventory was this low?

Let's start with the similarities. If a house is priced very low it will get multiple offers. There was a house on Bowdoin that listed for $728,000 and got 21 offers. It sold over $900,000. I don't know the final price, but I have a client who offered over 900K and that was not the highest offer. The house was probably worth $850-900K but pricing it so low incited a feeding frenzy that made it sell higher than what I think it was worth. This isn't my idea of how to sell real estate. Call me lazy, but I have no interest in dealing with 20 offers, and it is such a waste of time for so many people. Nevertheless, it's still true that a home priced way below market value will get many offers.

But what about the other homes on the market? This is not 2007, even though the inventory level is similar. Money isn't too expensive, but it's still not easy to get. Down payment and reserve requirements are high, banks are tight fisted with our bail-out money, and appraisers are tight on their appraisals. It's not uncommon to have an appraisal come in 10% less than what experienced realtors think a house is worth. Buyers don't have irrational exuberance and are definitely not jumping at any house in their price range that fits some of their needs. They want value for their hard-earned and ever harder to obtain financing. Job security is non-existent for many people. I think this will be an active year in Palo Alto real estate, with more homes changing hands, but I don't think there will be a lot of appreciation. And of course, as I have been saying for months, the over 2.5 million segment has not hit bottom yet.

· If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

DRE 01191194