Showing posts with label Mortgages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mortgages. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Steve Papapietro's Weekly Mortgage Bulletin: Iron Hank and Super Ben Take Path to Save the World


For the week of Sept 22, 2008-- Vol. 6, Issue 39

Last Week in Review

"The path to success is to take massive, determined action." Anthony Robbins. And success in stabilizing the markets and the economy is exactly what the government is hoping will happen as a result of the massive, determined actions they took late last week in response to unprecedented happenings in the financial markets. 

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced that the US government will guarantee money market funds, after panic led to a "run on the bank" type of environment. A whopping $180 billion was withdrawn from market funds on Thursday alone. And the fear was so great that a premium to put money into Treasury securities was paid, which actually exceeded the rate of return. So effectively, the return was negative! People were actually paying for a place to put their money that would be safe because they had fears of losing principle. The government guarantee helped to ease these fears and stabilize the markets.

The Fed announced plans to create a market place for liquid mortgage debt. This should do a lot of long-term good to help the housing and lending environment. As if that weren't enough, the Securities and Exchange Commission also placed a temporary ban on the short selling of 799 different financially related stocks.

What prompted these dramatic actions? Very dramatic happenings earlier in the week.

After 158 years in existence, Lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy last Monday due to overexposure of high-risk loans in the mortgage arena. Then, the Fed gave insurance giant AIG an $85 billion lifeline to keep it from going into bankruptcy, after initially stating it would not intervene. Then it was announced that Merrill Lynch is being acquired by Bank of America, which will save them from the same fate as Lehman brothers, and now troubled bank Washington Mutual is looking for a buyer as well. 

Also playing a role was the fact that the Fed left its benchmark Fed Funds Rate (the rates banks charge each other for overnight lending) unchanged on Tuesday, not wanting to counter the recent improvements the US economy has made in the way of inflation. While this benefited Bonds and home loan rates earlier in the week, Stocks felt heavy selling pressure on the news... which added to the reasons for the actions taken late last week.

The government's announcements on Friday are great news for the overall health of our financial system, though they did cause Bonds and home loan rates to move away from their best levels of the week. All in all, Bonds and home loan ended the week slightly worse than where they began. Additionally, stocks had their most volatile week in history--but ended the week almost exactly where they started.

The path to smart spending definitely involves taking advantage of great deals! Check out this week's mortgage market view for five fantastic freebies... and a link to 25 more! 

Forecast for the Week

The ride isn't over---the coming week may see more wild movement in the markets as the financial sector responds to all the recent action, along with several reports due in the latter part of the week. We'll get a read on the housing market with Wednesday's Existing Home Sales Report and Thursday's New Home Sales Report. And we will get a read on the economy with Friday's Gross Domestic Product Report (GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity) and Thursday's Durable Goods Report.

What are "durable goods"? Simply put, they are items that are durable (i.e cars, furniture, appliances, games, cameras, business equipment, etc.) and are made to last longer than three years. This report shows a good measure of consumer and business consumption and buying behavior, and depending on the health of the report, could add to the volatility we have seen.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower... and vice versa. AS you can see from the chart at the top of the post, Bonds and home loan rates are still much improved from several weeks ago, despite giving up some recent gains. This could be a great time to take a close look at your home loan financing needs, as rates remain at historic lows. As always, I will be watching closely to see how Bonds and home loan rates continue to respond in these volatile times. 
CHART ABOVE: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond 

The Mortgage Market View

Five Fantastic Freebies

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For twenty-five more great freebies, CLICK HERE


Monday, July 14, 2008

Steve Papapietro's Weekly Mortgage Bulletin

LAST WEEK IN REVIEW

"I GUESS WE ALL LIKE TO BE RECOGNIZED NOT FOR ONE PIECE OF FIREWORKS, BUT FOR THE LEDGER OF OUR DAILY WORK." Neil Armstrong. And while the summer's fireworks started in full force on the July 4th holiday, they continued daily last week in the financial markets as Bonds and home loan rates ignited and began the week by improving sharply. This early-week rally was sparked by a speech made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the the Fed may continue to provide emergency loans to investment banks to help them overcome credit problems. This led to improvement in the Bond market because the markets saw this as a sign that the Fed is willing to take action to maintain stability and counter any turbulence or explosions that may occur. 

And speaking of explosions, some explosions in the Middle East helped douse the rallying flames mid-week after Iran test fired nine medium to long range missles, one of which has the range to reach Israel. The instability of that situation... and the new testimony by Treasury Secretary Services Committee regarding ways Congress can overhaul the financial regulatory system to prevent future crises (the first hearing of its kind)... caused the improvements in the market to fizzle as Traders watched and waited for the finale these events would cause. 

As it turned out, last week's finale was a bit of an implosion. despite Paulson's encouraging words about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bonds and home laon rates worsened after reports on Friday that the government is considering a plan to take control of both companies if financial problems threaten their collapse. Stock prices of Fannie and Freddie would essentially become worthless if this happens, and Stocks and Bonds both reacted poorly to this news as investor confidence plunged. 

Also, another record high for oil (remember higher oil prices means higher inflation, which is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates) added to the implosion and worsening of Bonds and home loan rates on Friday. However, when all the smoke cleared, bonds and home loan rates still managed to end the week slightly better than where they began. 

FIREWORKS MAY BE A FUN PART OF THE SUMMER, BUT HIGH ENERGY BILLS CERTAINLY AREN'T. CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN SOME GREAT WAYS TO SAVE ON COOLING COSTS. 

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

We could be in for another explosive week, as several reports will show the impact inflation continues to have on the economy. Tuesday will bring the wholesale inflation measuring Producer Price Index as well as the Retail Sales Report, which measures the total receipts of retail stores. Since these numbers reflect consumer spending patterns, this report will show how much of an impact inflation and high oil prices are having on consumer pocketbooks. 

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index report will be released, and this widely-watched report will reveal the level of inflation at the consumer level since it shows how much more expensive goods and services are this month over last month. Also, on Wednesday, we'll get to see the minutes of the Fed's last Federal Open Market Committee meeting. These minutes could cause some sizzle in the markets especially if they give any indication of what the Fed will be do about its benchmark rate, the Fed Funds Rate, at the next meeting.

Thursday we will see a read on the housing market via the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report. We'll also learn how much of an impact inflation has had on manufacturing via the Philadelphia Fed Report, which is a monthly survey of  manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. 

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower... and vice versa. The chart below shows how the rally for Bonds and home loan rates fizzled late last week. And since inflation also tends to stop rallies for both Stocks and Bonds, I'll be watching closely as always. If this week's reports indicate inflation is heating up, this could cause Bond pricing and home loan rates to worsen in response. 


WAYS TO SAVE ON COOLING COSTS

Heating and air conditioning usually represent the biggest portion of home energy bills. As we head into the hottest part of the year, here are some ideas from author and home improvement expert Don Vandervort that will help you stay cool... and save money in the long run:

Get "In the Zone". Creating heating and cooling zones that let part of your house become warmer and cooler than other parts is a great way to save both energy and money. If your home has a ducted system and wasn't originally designed with a zone system in mind, you can have a professional install a series of motorized dampers in certain areas that will create a zone effect.

Install room air-conditioning units. If your family spends a majority of time in one room or area of your home, like the family room or TV room, you can install a window unit or portable unit in that room and use that unit for part of the day instead of turning on your central air conditioning. you can always turn your central air conditioner on for those times of the day when your family is dispersed throughout the house.

Install ceiling fans. The latest technology means that ceiling fans achieve better air circulation and can now help you save as much as 30% on your energy bill. Be sure to look for the Energy Star designation for energy efficiency. 

Inspect Your Ductwork. Recent research has shown that central heating and cooling systems that use ductwork can lose as much as 50% of their energy through leaks. It is important to have your ductwork inspected by a contractor every three years t make sure your system is operating at maximum efficiency. 

Install Heat Recovery Ventilators (HRVs). Not only do HRVs get rid of air contaminants like odors, dust, and mold, they also grab much of the cold or heat from the outgoing air and recyle it back into your home with the incoming fresh air. These units are especially helpful if your home is tightly sealed. 

For even more great home tips and ways to save this summer click here